\relax 
\citation{saltelli00}
\citation{ishida89,puccia85}
\@writefile{toc}{\contentsline {section}{\numberline {1}Introduction}{3}}
\citation{mintz75}
\citation{simon82}
\citation{rosen93}
\citation{miller02}
\citation{seidewitz03}
\citation{sendall03}
\citation{hailpern06}
\citation{omg03}
\citation{greenfield04}
\citation{waddington03}
\@writefile{toc}{\contentsline {section}{\numberline {2}Modeling and Search}{5}}
\citation{clancey96a}
\citation{law00,harrell00,kelton02,raffo05b,raffo05c}
\citation{hamid91,sterman00}
\citation{akhavi93,harel90,martin00}
\citation{martin01,donzelli01,setamanit07}
\citation{bratko01}
\citation{iwasaki89}
\citation{mi90}
\citation{feather03}
\citation{france03}
\citation{denno03}
\citation{jurjens06}
\citation{bals04}
\citation{gray06}
\citation{filman04}
\citation{cai05}
\citation{jackson02}
\citation{heitmeyer02}
\citation{child06}
\citation{whittle06}
\citation{clarke03}
\citation{clarke03}
\citation{jones96a,jones98,pargas99,tracey98}
\citation{feather03}
\citation{harman02,lutz01}
\citation{clarke03}
\citation{aguilar01,dolado00,dolado01}
\citation{rela04}
\citation{me99j}
\citation{harman01}
\citation{mitchell97}
\citation{treinish98}
\citation{treinish98}
\citation{treinish98}
\@writefile{toc}{\contentsline {section}{\numberline {3}``Hard Modeling'' Problems}{7}}
\newlabel{sec:easyhard}{{3}{7}}
\citation{saltelli00}
\citation{boning94}
\citation{ishida89,puccia85}
\@writefile{lof}{\contentsline {figure}{\numberline {1}{\ignorespaces A visualization tool for scientific data. From\nobreakspace  {}\cite  {treinish98}.}}{8}}
\newlabel{fig:treinish}{{1}{8}}
\@writefile{toc}{\contentsline {section}{\numberline {4}Collars and Clumps }{9}}
\newlabel{sec:general}{{4}{9}}
\citation{me03l}
\citation{me03l}
\citation{druzdel94}
\@writefile{toc}{\contentsline {subsection}{\numberline {4.1}Theoretical Evidence}{10}}
\citation{samuel59}
\citation{kohavi97}
\citation{avri96}
\citation{wong95}
\citation{budd80}
\citation{acree80}
\newlabel{eq:dr}{{1}{11}}
\@writefile{toc}{\contentsline {subsection}{\numberline {4.2}Empirical Evidence}{11}}
\citation{bieman92}
\citation{harrold98}
\citation{pelanek04}
\citation{holzmann90}
\citation{pelanek04}
\citation{miller56}
\citation{me03e,me07}
\citation{bay99,webb03}
\citation{cai98}
\citation{hu02}
\@writefile{toc}{\contentsline {section}{\numberline {5}Data Mining with Collars and Clumps}{13}}
\citation{Blake+Merz:1998}
\citation{me00e}
\citation{fea02a}
\citation{Blake+Merz:1998}
\citation{me00e}
\citation{fea02a}
\@writefile{lof}{\contentsline {figure}{\numberline {2}{\ignorespaces A log of some golf-playing behavior.}}{14}}
\newlabel{fig:golfdata}{{2}{14}}
\@writefile{lof}{\contentsline {figure}{\numberline {3}{\ignorespaces Finding treatments that can improve golf playing behavior. With no treatments, we only play lots of golf in ${\begingroup 6\endgroup \over 5+3+6}= 57\%$ of cases. However, assuming {\em  outlook=overcast}, we play golf lots of times in 100\% of cases. }}{14}}
\newlabel{fig:golft}{{3}{14}}
\citation{raffo95}
\@writefile{lof}{\contentsline {figure}{\numberline {4}{\ignorespaces Runtimes for TAR2 on different domains. First 6 data sets come from the UC Irvine machine learning data repository\nobreakspace  {}\cite  {Blake+Merz:1998}; ``cocomo'' comes from a COCOMO software cost estimation model \cite  {me00e}; ``pilot'' comes from the NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory \cite  {fea02a}.}}{15}}
\newlabel{fig:runtime}{{4}{15}}
\@writefile{toc}{\contentsline {section}{\numberline {6}Case Studies}{15}}
\newlabel{sec:studies}{{6}{15}}
\@writefile{toc}{\contentsline {subsection}{\numberline {6.1}Inspection Policies}{15}}
\newlabel{sec:policy}{{6.1}{15}}
\@writefile{lof}{\contentsline {figure}{\numberline {5}{\ignorespaces High-level block diagram of a discrete event model of one company's software process.}}{16}}
\newlabel{fig:raffo}{{5}{16}}
\citation{raffo95}
\citation{fagan86}
\newlabel{eq:util}{{2}{17}}
\citation{fea02a}
\@writefile{lof}{\contentsline {figure}{\numberline {6}{\ignorespaces Utility frequency in 12800 samples, {\em  before} and {\em  after} treatment.}}{18}}
\newlabel{fig:utilities}{{6}{18}}
\newlabel{fig:run10}{{6}{18}}
\citation{quinlan86}
\@writefile{lof}{\contentsline {figure}{\numberline {7}{\ignorespaces About C4.5 and CART}}{19}}
\newlabel{fig:c45cart}{{7}{19}}
\@writefile{lof}{\contentsline {figure}{\numberline {8}{\ignorespaces A decision tree learned via C4.5.}}{20}}
\newlabel{fig:dt}{{8}{20}}
\@writefile{lof}{\contentsline {figure}{\numberline {9}{\ignorespaces A regression tree learned by CART from data generated from the Figure\nobreakspace  {}5\hbox {} model. In this figure, and \fig {lsr}, policies are denoted as a four-part sequence describing the inspection policy at each phase. For example, ``FFFN'' denotes using no inspections for code but full Fagan inspections for all earlier phases. }}{21}}
\newlabel{fig:cart}{{9}{21}}
\@writefile{lof}{\contentsline {figure}{\numberline {10}{\ignorespaces Linear regression learned from data generated from the Figure\nobreakspace  {}5\hbox {} model. }}{21}}
\newlabel{fig:lsr}{{10}{21}}
\citation{paulk95}
\citation{me01e}
\@writefile{toc}{\contentsline {subsection}{\numberline {6.2}Studying the CMM}{22}}
\newlabel{sec:cmm}{{6.2}{22}}
\@writefile{lof}{\contentsline {figure}{\numberline {11}{\ignorespaces Part of CMM2, encoded in the JANE language.}}{22}}
\newlabel{fig:jane}{{11}{22}}
\@writefile{lof}{\contentsline {figure}{\numberline {12}{\ignorespaces Management actions in the CMM2 model. SQA= software quality assurance and SCM= software configuration management)}}{23}}
\newlabel{fig:actions}{{12}{23}}
\@writefile{lof}{\contentsline {figure}{\numberline {13}{\ignorespaces  Ratios of different software project types seen in four situations. }}{24}}
\newlabel{fig:output}{{13}{24}}
\citation{leveson91}
\@writefile{lof}{\contentsline {figure}{\numberline {14}{\ignorespaces The three best treatments found in the CMM2 model. }}{25}}
\newlabel{fig:cmm}{{14}{25}}
\citation{fea02a,me03i}
\citation{me03j}
\citation{me00e}
\citation{me05e}
\citation{me06a}
\citation{me06b}
\citation{me02h,owen02a}
\citation{gel03a}
\citation{burk04}
\@writefile{toc}{\contentsline {subsection}{\numberline {6.3}Other Case Studies}{26}}
\@writefile{toc}{\contentsline {section}{\numberline {7}Conclusion}{27}}
\newlabel{conclusions}{{7}{27}}
\bibstyle{nature}
\bibdata{refs,miamiRefs,../jim/refs,../tim/refs,../jeremy/refs}
\bibcite{saltelli00}{1}
\bibcite{ishida89}{2}
\bibcite{puccia85}{3}
\bibcite{mintz75}{4}
\bibcite{simon82}{5}
\bibcite{rosen93}{6}
\bibcite{miller02}{7}
\bibcite{seidewitz03}{8}
\bibcite{sendall03}{9}
\bibcite{hailpern06}{10}
\bibcite{omg03}{11}
\bibcite{greenfield04}{12}
\bibcite{waddington03}{13}
\bibcite{clancey96a}{14}
\bibcite{law00}{15}
\bibcite{harrell00}{16}
\bibcite{kelton02}{17}
\bibcite{raffo05b}{18}
\bibcite{raffo05c}{19}
\bibcite{hamid91}{20}
\bibcite{sterman00}{21}
\bibcite{akhavi93}{22}
\bibcite{harel90}{23}
\bibcite{martin00}{24}
\bibcite{martin01}{25}
\bibcite{donzelli01}{26}
\bibcite{setamanit07}{27}
\bibcite{bratko01}{28}
\bibcite{iwasaki89}{29}
\bibcite{mi90}{30}
\bibcite{feather03}{31}
\bibcite{france03}{32}
\bibcite{denno03}{33}
\bibcite{jurjens06}{34}
\bibcite{bals04}{35}
\bibcite{gray06}{36}
\bibcite{filman04}{37}
\bibcite{cai05}{38}
\bibcite{jackson02}{39}
\bibcite{heitmeyer02}{40}
\bibcite{child06}{41}
\bibcite{whittle06}{42}
\bibcite{clarke03}{43}
\bibcite{jones96a}{44}
\bibcite{jones98}{45}
\bibcite{pargas99}{46}
\bibcite{tracey98}{47}
\bibcite{harman02}{48}
\bibcite{lutz01}{49}
\bibcite{aguilar01}{50}
\bibcite{dolado00}{51}
\bibcite{dolado01}{52}
\bibcite{rela04}{53}
\bibcite{me99j}{54}
\bibcite{harman01}{55}
\bibcite{mitchell97}{56}
\bibcite{treinish98}{57}
\bibcite{boning94}{58}
\bibcite{me03l}{59}
\bibcite{druzdel94}{60}
\bibcite{samuel59}{61}
\bibcite{kohavi97}{62}
\bibcite{avri96}{63}
\bibcite{wong95}{64}
\bibcite{budd80}{65}
\bibcite{acree80}{66}
\bibcite{bieman92}{67}
\bibcite{harrold98}{68}
\bibcite{pelanek04}{69}
\bibcite{holzmann90}{70}
\bibcite{miller56}{71}
\bibcite{me03e}{72}
\bibcite{me07}{73}
\bibcite{bay99}{74}
\bibcite{webb03}{75}
\bibcite{cai98}{76}
\bibcite{hu02}{77}
\bibcite{Blake+Merz:1998}{78}
\bibcite{me00e}{79}
\bibcite{fea02a}{80}
\bibcite{raffo95}{81}
\bibcite{fagan86}{82}
\bibcite{quinlan86}{83}
\bibcite{paulk95}{84}
\bibcite{me01e}{85}
\bibcite{leveson91}{86}
\bibcite{me03i}{87}
\bibcite{me03j}{88}
\bibcite{me05e}{89}
\bibcite{me06a}{90}
\bibcite{me06b}{91}
\bibcite{me02h}{92}
\bibcite{owen02a}{93}
\bibcite{gel03a}{94}
\bibcite{burk04}{95}